Patrick Dixon - Futurist

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Truth about BlockChain, BitCoins - impact on banking, insurance - BlockC...





I have advised hundreds of the world’s largest corporations on digital trends, and one of the biggest that CEOs and boards are now talking about is Blockchain.  What is Blockchain and what does it mean for us?  Could Blockchain wipe out our business, or will Blockchain help us grow? 
Here is a comment after my recent keynote for the global team of Generali Insurance, on Blockchain.

So what is Blockchain?

Blockchain is a very clever method for making permanent global records, with copies held in many different places, totally safe from corruption, deletion, alteration or cyberattack. 
Blockchain uses the same technology as BitCoin and other so-called cyptocurrencies. 
BitCoin technology was developed to allow a new “virtual” currency to be created, coin by coin, in a way that is permanent, protected, cannot be duplicated or destroyed.  It costs a lot of money, mainly electric power to run computers, to create each BitCoin, so they are rare and have real value.  BitCoins are traded against many other currencies. 

Blockchain developed from BitCoins

BitCoins are also completely anonymous, and impossible to track when used for online payments, as well as completely secure.  
BitCoins are controversial because the system is so strong, that they are now the payment of choice used by many criminal gangs, for drugs, ransom payments, arms deals and so on.
The system works because each payment is registered in an ultra-secure database which cannot ever be altered.  This means that each BitCoin can only be transferred once.  
If you spend a BitCoin, you cannot spend your same BitCoin again.  Once spent, it’s value is registered at the speed of light to another person permanently, using a system that we call BlockChain.  Each “block” is an individual cluster of records, and each “Chain” is a time-stamped sequence of blocks.
But we can use the same registration system for another purpose: to register documents rather than ownership of BitCoins.

Why Blockchain really matters to most industries

Blockchain means that anyone in the world with online access can prove a particular document exists, when it was sent, who it was sent to and so on.  We can also prove that an event has taken place, in a way which is fully transparent to everyone who needs to know this around the world.
The implications of this are going to be huge.  And it will be many years before we work it all out.  We are at a similar stage with Blockchain that we were with the web in 1997. 
A lot of excitement and speculation, and also a lot of uncertainty about how it will affect us all in practice.

Blockchain Boom

There is no doubt that Blockchain has the power to completely transform every financial transaction or legal process, every trade agreement, every insurance claim and every supply chain ordering system.
That is why we are seeing huge investment in Blockchain innovation, inside large companies, and a huge number of new Blockchain startups, especially in FinTech.

Blockchain impact on real estate sales

Consider the complex processes to buy a house.  Legal agreements are exchanged and signed.  Deposits are made, and then final payments.  After this, land ownership records are altered in government archives. 
Each of these processes has to be checked and verified to prevent fraud and protect both buyer and seller.  Each of these steps can be revolutionized using Blockchain.  
And as that happens, we will find we have new ways to validate these steps – no longer the exclusive roles of banks and law firms.
A real estate agent could safely handle the whole thing, backed by Blockchain technology.  Indeed, buyers and sellers could do far more themselves, cutting costs and speeding up transactions by many days or weeks.

Blockchain impact on insurance industry

Fraud is a major challenge in the insurance industry, and means that in many nations people are paying at least 5% more than they should be, just to pay for these losses. 
Blockchain could change all that, as well as cut many other costs.  Take the auto industry and car insurance.  Imagine that every vehicle in the world has its own Blockchain record. 
A global register of your car that contains date of sale, past and current owners, details of every repair, accident or insurance claim. 
We could also create a global register of individuals and their current or past insurance policies, or a global register of all insured businesses and claims.

Automated travel insurance claims driven by Blockchain

Blockchain could mean completely automated insurance: from payment to policy issuing, to triggering a claim, to payout, to confirmation of receipt of payment and closure of the case. 
A traveller could take out insurance against flight cancellation.  The flight record is made automatically, and shows that a cancellation did indeed happen.  
Within seconds, a payment is triggered into the policy holder’s bank account, before the traveller is even aware that the insurance company has been notified.

Blockchain impact on banking and international payments

Blockchain will protect international money transfers.  
I spoke at a global payments conference recently and was shocked to discover how many global payments are still relying on last century tech for tracking – which is why cross-border payments are still so slow and so prone to errors.

Blockchain impact on supply chains and manufacturing

Blockchain could revolutionise supply chains and manufacturing, allowing buyers and sellers to be 100% confident about receipt of legally binding orders and payments, issuing of shipping documents, registration for customs and excise, proof of payment of import taxes.

Blockchain in legal firms and accounting

Legal processes depend fundamentally on proving that certain events have taken place, and in certifying the legal consequencies of those events.
Blockchain means that legal firms can prove that documents have been issued and in what form.  Signed and dated documents can be authenticated in a global secure register. 

Blockchain in digital forensics, compliance and regulatory processes

How do you prove that your digital records are correct?  That the date of an email authorizing action on a health and safety matter is the real date and has not been deliberately altered to avoid a prosecution?  
Blockchain can be used to permanently authenticate the fact of every email sent and received.
Blockchain can be used to validate all investor information, reports, and other important information.

So what happens next with Blockchain?

Expect to see a huge number of experiments with multiple failures along the way. As with all areas of FinTech, we will see common platforms and systems develop, for different industries, using common standards. 
And there will be quite a fight amongst different companies to get scale and dominance of their own industry.
The most successful Blockchain companies will become the industrial or legal or financial “Google’s” of tomorrow, with immense influence and power, and systems which are used in many different parts of society.
The financial rewards will be spectacular for the largest winners in the new Blockchain economy.  At the same time, we will see some spectacular failures and scandals. 

Expect Blockchain and cryptocurrency frauds and scandals

Blockchain is highly complex, depends on sophisticated mathematics and is poorly understood by most small investors or non-technical board members of multinationals. 
BlockChain and cyptocurrencies are both areas open to fraud, misrepresentation and deception on a gigantic scale, and expert advice is needed at every stage before engagement. 

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Future of Colombia - why Columbia has such a great future - comment on t...

Wednesday, February 03, 2016

"Disruption, Connectivity and Speed" - hear MCE55 keynote by Patrick Dixon

Sunday, September 06, 2015

Future of Almost Everything - new book by Patrick Dixon, keynote speaker...

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Future of Payments, Cards, Cash and Banking - ways to reduce banking ris...

Friday, April 04, 2014

Create passion at work in 3 minutes! Secrets of team motivation and lea...

Monday, February 24, 2014

What next: Inflation or Deflation? Get ready for inflation - Economics F...

Friday, February 14, 2014

Why future of MedTech, global economy etc will be driven by emotion - Fu...

Thursday, February 13, 2014

How customer demographics drives your business! Customer trends futurist...

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

How to Lead a Profitable, Sustainable Business - Futurist Lecture / Keyn...

Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Future of Telcos - why business models broken. Telecom mobile customer t...



Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Future of Europe, EU, Euro, Middle East and Global Economy - conference...

Future Euro: Greece, France Germany - economic outlook and history: conf...

Future of China - drive economic growth to maintain social stability - k...

Predict Future Markets: population, wealth, location, emerging markets c...

Future Innovation, Marketing, Consumers, Economy - conference keynote sp...

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

As a Futurist: Optimist or Pessimist? Personal view of future world - co...



As a Futurist, why I am an optimist about our ability to transform our future world in a positive and sustainable way. Part of keynote on the $40 trillion green tech revolution which could transform the future of our planet

Friday, November 11, 2011

Mobile Payments - Future of Banking and Shopping, Retail, Telecom - Futu...



How mobile payments will impact future of banks, banking, back end payment processing, credit card transactions and retail customer spending. Smartphones using encryption and biometrics will enable telecom companies to compete with banks and credit card companies for retail payment transactions. Expect wireless payments using smartphones to grow rapidly. Despite this, some customers will continue to prefer cash because it allows anonymous purchases and is convenient for smaller purchases. Mobile payments could generate commissions of up to EU2 billion a year in countries like France, Germany, Italy and the UK. What would happen if -- say -- Vodafone formed a partnership with Google, Nokia and American Express? Implications for financial services, small loans, large ticket purchases of white goods, cars and other big items. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Patrick Dixon speaking at retail trends conference for Hermes clients. Future of banking and financial services.

Filling the supermarket trolley: customer journeys, future retail trends...



How retail chains and supermarkets persuade customers to buy, Manipulating the customer journey around the store with well-placed special offers, combinations of products, eye-catching displays and other retail marketing promotions. Experience of Tesco, Safeway, Sainsbury, Morrisons, Carrefour and Wal-Mart. Video by conference keynote speaker and future trends analyst for retail industry conference - Hermes client event in the UK - Futurist speaker Patrick Dixon.

Future of Food Retailing, food industry trends, consumer lifestyles. Re...



Food industry trends in retail - small food outlets to major retail chains. Food sales are all about emotion and consumer passion: quality, health, flavour, additives, colourants, natural food, organic food, preservatives, sourcing of animals, animal welfare, sustainable fisheries, fair trade, kosher, hallal, vegetarian, vegan - there are already hundreds of niche food markets. Expect this diversification to continue - with specialist retail food stores, and also with sub-brands inside major stores such as Wal-Mart, Carrefour or Tesco. As we have seen in recent food scares, customers are deeply worried about food safety - especially parents who are concerned about the health of babies or their young children. Therefore expect more regulations about food quality and healthiness, more food labelling, more food safety checks - and more sensational news stories about food safety lapses. Comment on future of food industry by Futurist keyntote conference speaker Patrick Dixon in presentation to retail clients of Hermes at corporate event.

Future food shortages: consumers, retail, farms, energy industry, biofue...



Future food crisis and why there are global food shortages. Population growth is often blamed but we have enough food to feed the world without hunger of famine. Food price crises of 2007-8 and 2011-12 were caused by many factors including flood, drought, failed harvests, damaged crops, disease - but the biggest single change was burning food as biofuels. In 2011 over 40% of all wheat grain grown on farms in America was burnt in vehicles. Over 5% of all petrol / gasoline / diesel sold in Europe is now biofuels, much of it made from food. Biofuels have linked energy prices with food prices with land prices with forestry prices. We have one global market now for energy and food. So if energy prices rise, more food gets converted into energy - or biowaste, or trees.... but all these things affect land use at the end of the day. So if you expect (as I do) continued energy shortages, and rising oil prices, then it is logical to expect rising food prices. The trouble is that while wealthy nations suffer a little, individuals in the poorest nations suffer hugely. History shows clearly that rises in food prices and hunger amongst the population are the fastest ways to destabilise government. No surprise then that in 2007-8 we saw food riots in 33 nations and the fall of one government, and that in 2011 we saw riots and revolution in many nations (Middle East - so-called Arab Sprint). One of the factors that brought street protests was that ordinary people were finding food price rises were the last straw on top of so many other hardships, partly linked to to the global economic downturn, national debt crisis and banking crisis which in turn followed the original US sub-prime crisis. Lesson: global trends are complex, interlinked and minor trends can be amplified rapidly by globalisation and the digital village into radical forces for change. What does this all mean for farming, farmers, agriculture and land ownership? Expect prices for farm land to rise, in line with energy prices. Expect many farmers to switch crops from those supplying food direct to retail food chains, to crops which will find their way into biofuel manufacturing. Video of retail industry future trends by Futurist keynote conference speaker Patrick Dixon - for UK retail industry executives at client event organised by Hermes.

Five seconds to win a customer. Moments of Truth: Future Trends in Retai...



Why every second counts in retail - and how companies lose customers faster than they realise. Vital trends for the future of retailing from Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon. Marketing and selling to customers should be fast, easy, convenient and satisfying. Keep your customers happy, listen to them, keep close to how they are really thinking about your products and services. In a time-poor world, customers are increasingly fed up with companies that waste time, make them wait, keep them on hold, make them stand in line. Premium customers expect instant service, rapid help, total commitment, expert advice and 100% delivery on your promises.

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Five seconds to win a customer. Moments of Truth: Future Trends in Retai...



Why every second counts in retail - and how companies lose customers faster than they realise. Vital trends for the future of retailing from Futurist keynote speaker Patrick Dixon. Marketing and selling to customers should be fast, easy, convenient and satisfying. Keep your customers happy, listen to them, keep close to how they are really thinking about your products and services. In a time-poor world, customers are increasingly fed up with companies that waste time, make them wait, keep them on hold, make them stand in line. Premium customers expect instant service, rapid help, total commitment, expert advice and 100% delivery on your promises.

Friday, May 07, 2010

Future of Travel, Tourism, Hotels European consumer trends

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Future of the travel industry, package holidays, tourism, travel agents, corporate travel, vacation planning, online booking systems, social networks, facebook, twitter. Video comment made after keynote speech at Antalya Turkey conference on tourism. Future of Eco-tourism and growth of medical tourism, culture festivals, sports tourism, adventure holidays. Competition between Spain, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey - related to exchange rates. Antalya future tourist trends compared to Costa Brava, Costa del Sol, Barcelona, Istanbul. Ministry of Tourism and Tourism agencies.

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Saturday, April 19, 2008

Sovereign wealth funds - what China will do next?

Sovereign wealth funds hold several trillion dollars. What will they do? Most was in long term Federal Bonds. Expect sovereign wealth fund managers to diversify into banking, technology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, mining and oil industry as well as real estate if prices fall further. Selling dollars on large scale is unlikely since it would lower dollar value and value of their remaining dollar investments. Video by conference keynote Futurist speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, author Futurewise. Sovereign wealth, funds, management, dollar, US economy, outlook, fall, rise, investments, portfolio, economic trends, emerging markets, patrick dixon

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Sunday, April 13, 2008

UK joining Euro -- less likely after sub-prime crisis

Impact of subprime crisis on Euro entry date by Britain. Interest rate control Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England. Sovereignty and national autonomy to manage economy. Tigthening and loosening of monetary policy in response to inflation of commodities, retail price index and house market indicators. Eurozone control of economic policy. Government freedom in times of financial crisis and uncertainty, managing risk. Predictions of date of Eurozone entry and Eurozone expansion. Video by keynote conference speaker Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist and author of 12 books on global trends. Euro, sterling, currency, inflation, central bank, bank, England, interest, rates, control, economy, growth, recession, economic.

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Monday, March 31, 2008

4 Watch your audience -- secrets of great presentations

How to give great presentations -- part 4. Watch your audience. Secret of great keynote conference speeches. How to give great lectures. Powerful presentation tools and tips. How to use Powerpoint. How to reach an audience. Connect with audience emotion. Understand needs of audience. Watch audience responses. Keep close to event organisers. Prepare very carefully. Adapt key messages. Take care over humour, jokes and culture. Guide, conference preparation tips and tools. How to win an audience over. Keep messages simple and relevant. Guide to great presentations by Patrick Dixon, Futurist and keynote conference speaker -- has spoken to audiences in 50 nations, up to 4 countries a week, 30-2000 people each time, and ranked as one of the most influential business thinkers alive today.
Presentations, lectures, conference, powerpoint, keynote, speech, event, workshop, seminar, prepare, success, tools, guide

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Friday, March 28, 2008

Social and demographic / lifestyle trends -- impact on ...

Need for students to understand demographic challenges, global challenges. Issues of injustice (perceived) and potential for future conflicts. Example of oil industry in Nigeria. Militant activists, moral passion, attacks, sabotage, kidnapping, security issues. Small numbers of activists will have huge power in tomorrow's world. Video on future of education, high schools, colleges, universities, curriculum, trends, syllabus, exams, assessments, business schools, MBAs, degree courses - by Dr Patrick Dixon, Futurist conference keynote speaker for NAIS.

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Thursday, March 27, 2008

Managing speed of change - risk management - leadership

Speed of change. Change management. Leadership styles and decisions. Web marketing. Online sales. Impatient consumers and consumer choices. Rapid innovation. Business profit. Agility in teams. Contingencies. Managing uncertainty and risk management. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

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Sunday, March 23, 2008

Staying Young - anti ageing research

Science of ageing. How to stop getting old. Medical research into physiology of ageing. How cells get old. Tissue regeneration of heart, muscle, retina, spine, brain and other organs. Repair of tissue damage. Organ regeneration. Cure for blood pressure? New facelift therapy? Humpback whales, Rockfish Project and slow ageing in turtles and parrots. Human impact of anti-aging therapy. Social impact of living longer. Impact on longevity forecasts for life insurance and pensions risk. Cure for deafness and cure for macular degeneration. Conference keynote speaker and Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon.

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